February 2023

logos of the election pollsters NOI, ANAP, Stears and Bloomberg

Nigeria’s election and the pollster’s albatross

In three of the six states where Stears said it obtained its booster samples — Lagos, Kwara, Rivers, Benue, Plateau and Kano, for example — only three Lagos, Plateau and Benue have a historically likely chance of fetching Obi more than 25 percent of the the votes cast. He will be lucky to get an average of 10 percent in the remaining three, where APC and PDP run a tight ship

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photo collage of president Goodluck Jonathan, president Muhammadu Buhari and the CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele

Looking back, facing forward as Nigeria decides

New problems have replaced old ones. The most debilitating being the calamitous absence of Buhari. Never a man to interfere with his subordinates once he has appointed them, in his last days in office, things have gotten worse. He is present only in name, going from delegation of authority to spectatorship and from spectatorship to surrender. Abdication next? The cat is away and the mice party was never so boisterous

Looking back, facing forward as Nigeria decides Read More »

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